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January 24 A Republican Victory in November?Will the GOP maintain their grip on the White House?
Yes, if American voting habits have anything to say about it.
Ten months to go before Election Day and the Democrats are banking on a changing of the guard. But they are at a hidden disadvantage. All three horses out front are current or former members of the Senate. Upper-Housers are often nominated but rarely win. Examples? John Kerry (2004), Al Gore (2000), Bob Dole (1996), Walter Mondale (1988). The US electorate has not chosen a sitting Senator in nearly a half century, with Jack Kennedy narrowly taking the spoils in 1960.
The last sitting Senator to win the Presidency.
Meanwhile its been the governors who have been winning elections, and all from the South and West.
With his surprise victory in South Carolina (where he lost badly eight years before), Sen. John McCain might appear to be the GOP front-runner. But he is up against two former governors in Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. Consciously or subconsciously, Americans prefer these "mini-presidents." Able to label themselves as "Washington outsiders," they can also flaunt the experience of handling a budget, dealing with a legislature, wielding the powers of pardon and veto, and occasionally playing commander-in-chief with the National Guard.
Rudi Giuliani? He has a better chance of winning a kickboxing tournament than securing his party's nomination. Trailing badly in the polls - by about 911 miles - he might be nonplussed to learn that we have not chosen a mayor since Warren Harding's successor Calvin Coolidge (former Mayor of Northampton, Massachusetts) in 1924. By the way, Silent Cal was also a former governor, as were the only other mayors to serve in the White House (Grover Cleveland of New York and Andrew Johnson of Tennessee).
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