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January 31 Is Barack Obama like Jack Kennedy?Recently, both Sen. Edward Kennedy and his niece Caroline favorably compared Barack Obama to their immortal relation John F. Kennedy. Which begs the question - Is Barack really like Jack? The idea has a musky, feel-good notion, especially for those partial to 60's nostalgia. Certainly the comparison is plausible ...on the surface.
For example, both are…
...Ivy Leaguers – Kennedy graduated from Harvard, where he majored in International Affairs. Obama went to Columbia with an emphasis on International Affairs and then graduated from Harvard Law School.
...relatively young – Obama will be 47 by Election Day. At 43, Kennedy was the youngest president ever elected (Theodore Roosevelt was 42 when he became president after the assassination of William McKinley).
...“minorities” - Obama is half African-American and would be the first racial minority to become President. Kennedy was the first Catholic, and to date the only one, to become Chief Executive. His religion was a major concern for many Protestant voters, with Catholicism being the largest religious denomination in the US at the time (25%).
...sitting Senators – Senators are often nominated but rarely elected. Indeed, JFK was the last incumbent Senator elected President.
...best-selling authors – Blatantly promoted by his famous father, Kennedy saw his Harvard thesis on Britain’s reluctant entry into World War II become a wildly successful volume called Why England Slept. Over a decade later, he won a Pulitzer for Profiles in Courage, a sketch of eight US Senators who held to their convictions despite much opposition. Soon after graduating from Harvard, Obama wrote the biographical Dreams from My Father, which sold extremely well. Over a decade later, he was even more successful with The Audacity of Hope, a domestic policy treatise written for a general audience.
...and highly charismatic - Youthful vigor emanated from both men. They both campaigned heavily on a theme of hopeful but ambiguous “change,” aiming to take the White House after eight years of folksy but conservative presidents in Eisenhower and George W.
But is it a fair comparison? In a word - no.
On more substantive issues, the two men are as different as two Democrats can be, specifically...
...Barack was from a middle class background - Both his parents were academics with no major political ties. After college, he worked as an administrator for Chicago's low-income housing system. Elected three times to the Illinois State Senate, he entered the US Senate in 2004, beating his Republican opponent with 70% of the vote.
...Jack inherited his political career - Highly intelligent and naturally competitive, Kennedy nonetheless had no inclination to enter politics. Journalism would likely have been his chosen profession. But the death of his eldest brother Joe in World War II promoted him to the flagship of his father's ambitions. A successful run for the US House of Representatives in 1946, heavily bankrolled by Joseph Kennedy Sr., set his career in motion.
...and most importantly...
...Barack prefers negotiation and humanitarian aid - He opposed the Second Gulf War early on, and endorses a rapid scale-down. In regards to Iran, he has publicly stated a desire to use multilateral talks in the Middle East, including with Syria and Lebanon. Though he has been relatively muted on the military budget, he does not support an increase. And unlike Jack, he never served in the Armed Forces.
...Jack was a Hawk - When leaders are assassinated, they are often wrapped in victimhood and anointed with rose water. Even the most authoritarian among them take on the halo of martyrdom, and past faults are quickly forgotten. Such was the case with Kennedy. Painted today as Arthur of the American Camelot, an idealist after the elusive grail of peace and brotherhood, he was in fact a military conservative and proud of it. In 1960 he ran a successful campaign depicting Vice President Nixon and outgoing President Eisenhower as being soft on communism. Warning of a perilous (and non-existent) missile gap, he pledged a buildup of nuclear and conventional forces, and accomplished that end his three years. The nation's thermonuclear tonnage increased nearly 200% under his administration, and Special Forces went up 800%. His Bay of Pigs fiasco and deployment of US nuclear missiles in Turkey helped spark the Cuban Missile Crisis. Eisenhower had fewer than one thousand military advisors in Vietnam. Kennedy propped that up to 15,000. Half of the U.S. Budget during his tenure went to National Defense.
January 24 A Republican Victory in November?Will the GOP maintain their grip on the White House?
Yes, if American voting habits have anything to say about it.
Ten months to go before Election Day and the Democrats are banking on a changing of the guard. But they are at a hidden disadvantage. All three horses out front are current or former members of the Senate. Upper-Housers are often nominated but rarely win. Examples? John Kerry (2004), Al Gore (2000), Bob Dole (1996), Walter Mondale (1988). The US electorate has not chosen a sitting Senator in nearly a half century, with Jack Kennedy narrowly taking the spoils in 1960.
The last sitting Senator to win the Presidency.
Meanwhile its been the governors who have been winning elections, and all from the South and West.
With his surprise victory in South Carolina (where he lost badly eight years before), Sen. John McCain might appear to be the GOP front-runner. But he is up against two former governors in Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. Consciously or subconsciously, Americans prefer these "mini-presidents." Able to label themselves as "Washington outsiders," they can also flaunt the experience of handling a budget, dealing with a legislature, wielding the powers of pardon and veto, and occasionally playing commander-in-chief with the National Guard.
Rudi Giuliani? He has a better chance of winning a kickboxing tournament than securing his party's nomination. Trailing badly in the polls - by about 911 miles - he might be nonplussed to learn that we have not chosen a mayor since Warren Harding's successor Calvin Coolidge (former Mayor of Northampton, Massachusetts) in 1924. By the way, Silent Cal was also a former governor, as were the only other mayors to serve in the White House (Grover Cleveland of New York and Andrew Johnson of Tennessee).
January 22 Is Bill a hindrance to Hillary?As Election ’08 rattles on, the question arises time and again among pundits – is Bill helping or hurting Hillary’s chances? Others are wondering if it is proper for a former chief executive to be stumping so blatantly in the first place.
If we were to look back a few years, it would seem that the presidents played a refrained note in promoting their favorite. While Bubba is working himself into a lather for Mrs. Clinton (for once), Bush Sr. by comparison was a somber siren for his eldest son in both 2000 and 2004.
But in reality, presidents sitting and sedentary usually have no political clout to give – for the simple reason that they are either politically spent or dead when then next election rolls around.
Both Al Gore and John Kerry actively distanced themselves from Clinton and the fresh memories of Lewinsky and last-minute pardons. Poor Reagan was already in the early stages of memory decline when his vice-president was up for promotion. Before them, the graduating class went Carter, Ford, Nixon, and LBJ - hardly the names one wants to invoke when talking about victory.
One has to go back to 1960 to see White House alumni pounding the pavement for their favorite sons. And it was ugly. Truman and Eisenhower, former allies in the wars against the Axis and Moscow, went headlong against each other in the fight for party supremacy. Before that, it was 1908 and Teddy Roosevelt pumping up his corpulent hand-picked successor in William Howard Taft, a man he would actively campaign AGAINST in 1912.
In this age of consumption and short memory, Bill Clinton must be seen for what he is – a brand name – powerful purely because it is so recognizable. When plodding to the polls, it can be said that the modern American will almost always side with the familiar. Case in point - from the years 1800 to 1900, only six presidents were reelected. From 1900, twelve presidents were given extensions. And since 1981, its been a Bush or a Clinton in the executive branch.
Once again, with a Clinton in the race, its Coke versus Pepsi for the American mindset. The only question that remains - will Jeb Bush try his hand in 2012?
T.Flagel January 21 Giuliani Gets an "F" in US Diplomatic HistoryIn his bid for the White House, former New York mayor Rudi Giuliani recently aired an ad in which he credited then-president Ronald Reagan for securing the release of the Iranian hostages in 1981.
“I remember back to the 1970s and the early 1980s. Iranian mullahs took American hostages, and they held the American hostages for 444 days. And they released the American hostages in one hour, and that should tell us a lot about these Islamic terrorists that we’re facing. The one hour in which they released them was the one hour in which Ronald Reagan was taking the oath of office as president of the United States. The best way you deal with dictators, the best way you deal with tyrants and terrorists, you stand up to them. You don’t back down.”
Poor Giuliani might want to crack open a history book or two. With all due respect to the late Mr. Reagan, the Gipper’s record against insurgents was less than steller, especially against Islamic Iran.
- During the Iran-Contra scandal, the Reagan administration sold more than 2,000 shoulder-fired rockets and seventeen medium-range HAWK surface-to-air missiles to Iran, in the failed hopes that Iran would help release dozens of Americans captured by Lebanese Hezbollah.
- While the Carter administration began materially supporting the Mujahideen against the Soviets during the Afghan War, the Reagan administration vastly increased that funding to the tune of $600 million in arms and equipment. Falsely glorified most recently in the film Charlie Wilson’s War, the Afghan Mujahideen were, and remain, tribal Islamic extremists, including their most fervent splinter organization, the Taliban.
- In October 1983, a single blast from a Lebanese suicide bomber killed 241 American servicemen in their barracks at the Beirut airport. The Reagan administration condemned the attack but staged no substantive retaliation. Four months after the attack, US troops were quietly removed from the region.
- Finally, the release if the Iranian hostages to which Mr. Giuliani refers,
occurred due to months of negotiations between Carter administration and Tehran. The decisive moment came when Carter’s side agreed to unfreeze millions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets held in American banks.
T. Flagel
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